Start your trading week right by prepping for these top-tier catalysts and checking out my potential trade setup.
Don’t forget to review which factors drove forex market price action last week, too!
Major Economic Events:
RBA policy statement (July 6, 4:30 am GMT) – No actual interest rate changes are expected for now, but the Australian central bank is expected to maintain its optimistic outlook.
Some are expecting words of caution from RBA policymakers this time, though, since the latest batch of lockdowns likely pushed back their tightening timeline.
Others think that the RBA might decide to ease up on their stimulus efforts starting this month.
FOMC meeting minutes (July 7, 6:00 pm GMT) – The fireworks ain’t over for the U.S. as the release of the FOMC minutes might still spark big dollar moves.
Recall that the June Fed meeting seemed more hawkish than expected, as inflation estimates were upgraded and the dot plot forecast of rates suggested a potentially earlier rate hike.
Fed head Powell was quick to downplay the pickup in price pressures during his speech the next day, suggesting that there is still a divide among FOMC members.
The transcript of their meeting would contain these internal discussions, which should provide more insight on how most policymakers are leaning.
Canada’s jobs report (July 9, 12:30 pm GMT) – After the back-to-back jobs data disappointments, Canada is projected to report a rebound of 40K in hiring for June. This should be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 8.2% to 8.1%.
However, another downbeat employment figure might lead Loonie traders to worry that the BOC tapered too soon or that it would take much longer before they tighten policy.
Forex Setup of the Week: GBP/USD
It looks like pound bulls are running out of steam!
Cable is forming a double top pattern on its daily time frame, so a break below the neckline support would confirm that a long-term slide is due.
The pair is also dipping below an ascending trend line that had been holding for more than a year already, reflecting a significant change in direction.
If sellers are able to keep this up, GBP/USD could tumble by the same height as the chart formation or roughly 500 pips.
However, technical indicators are telling a different story. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to suggest that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. Plus, Stochastic is hanging out at the oversold region to signal exhaustion among sellers.
Better keep an eye out for the FOMC minutes, as a strong hawkish tilt could give a major boost for the Greenback!