With the Fed event moving the Greenback and Australian jobs ahead, AUD/USD looks like it has the best chance of more volatility and potential trade opportunities.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at a setup on USD/JPY ahead of the Fed statement, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
New Zealand GDP at 10:45 pm GMT
Japan Tankan Index at 11:00 pm GMT
RBA Governor Lowe speech at 12:10 am GMT (June. 17)
Australia Employment, RBA Bulletin at 1:30 am GMT (June. 17)
China House Price Index at 1:30 am GMT (June. 17)
Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Statement at 7:30 am GMT (June. 17)
Italy Trade Balance at 8:00 am GMT (June. 17)
Euro Area Inflation Rate at 9:00 am GMT (June. 17)
What to Watch: AUD/USD
Coming soon, we’ve got the latest employment update from Australia to get the Aussie jumping, and with the Fed surprising the markets by signaling potential rate hikes sooner than expected in 2023, AUD/USD is a strong contender to see more action among the major currencies.
Expectations for the Aussie jobs report are for a rebound of +30K job adds in May vs. a job loss in April. If this scenario plays out or better, then AUD/USD could pop on the news. But with the U.S. dollar likely to see support over the next session as AsiaN and European traders get to price in the Fed event, a pop higher may be a selling opportunity to play the recent down move in the pair and the potential shift in perception of what the Fed may do next.
We’ll be on the look out for bearish reversal patterns on AUD/USD if the pair does pop higher in the upcoming session, likely to be seen around the broken swing lows between 0.7650 – 0.7675.
Of course, there’s also a low chance that Aussie jobs data disappoints, and if that scenario plays out, AUD/USD may not get the pop higher to play the trend lower / Fed event at better prices. That means AUD/USD could drop further and possible see the 0.7550 minor psychological handle (given the daily ATR of around 60 pips) before sellers may run out of steam short-term.