Recession & Macro-Economic Forecast – May 2021

National Financial Solution > Financial Forecast > Recession & Macro-Economic Forecast – May 2021

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[0:00] MAY 2021
[0:09] AP Economic Forecast Reviews
[9:22] Current Economic Environment
[15:51] AP Macro-Economic Indicators
[23:02] Recession Report Summary
[24:24] Final Notes

We calculated that the actual onset of a recession had already begun just over a year ago, a fact which was then confirmed by the NBER in June of 2020, and it became officially acknowledged by the Federal Reserve later in the summer of 2020 with their adoption of NBER’s declaration within Federal Reserve datasets. However, as we have frequently noted, the technical end of Recession 2020 already occurred late in the 3rd quarter of 2020. Three of our six indicators now in green territory, and a fourth technically should be green also (AP-FD), and we reflect this in our slightly lowered probability of another near-term recession to “50%”. (It would be even lower if the equities markets were more tame in their behavior.)

We are now entering a period in which our standard six indicators can be relied upon again, but still augmented by a direct watch of public health statistics, unemployment figures, GDP, Velocity of Money, and financial stability indices for several more months. Those are inherently less reliable short term indicators of recession potential than the six AP indicators.

| Advanced Projections has developed 6 key economic indicators that consistently forewarn of oncoming recessions. As our indicators change from green to yellow to red, our recession probability increases until it reaches a critical warning point. Our indicators and updates also alert members of economic restabilization when a recession is ending. Safeguard your business, savings, and investments with our essential monthly recession reports. |

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